Process of disintegration of Russia begins; increasing losses on the front already bearing fruit
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As is known, during the “May ceasefire” Russian Army did not reduce their assault activity in any way, but on the contrary, even increased it. As a result, the average losses on May 8-9-10 amounted to 1,300 bodies per day and 115 vehicles, mostly motorcycles. At the same time, the average rate of assaults was 190 per day.
Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko says that after the “May Victory Truce”, the average rate of assaults is 165, and losses decreased to 1,150 per day, with losses in the category of vehicles – 150. “That is, after “May Victory”, amid the reduction in the overall assault rate, the number of assaults on vehicles has increased, which entails an increase in losses in this category. And there is an unambiguous conclusion… Either on May 8-9-10 the command of the Russian army chased the meat filled with 100 grams of combat, bayoneted, girded with red flags, or with an increase in the number of assaults, they do not pull out the provision of all of them even with such simple and mass means as civilian transport. When the number of assaults per section of frontline is reduced, it is easier to concentrate and provide stormtroopers with appropriate means staff. Yes, you’re not wrong, the same motorcycles are now a standard unit of unit equipment. And roughly speaking, the more assaults, the less equipment is left in the formation to staff kit. The less, the easier it is to staff”, he added.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have been using less armored equipment during assaults on the most active sections of the front. The enemy is likely trying to conserve its equipment due to reduced Soviet-era stocks, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to Ukrainian military sources, Russian forces have been using less armored equipment and conducting fewer mechanized attacks in the Kurakhove direction after suffering significant losses of equipment in October and November 2024. A Ukrainian lieutenant colonel, speaking to The New York Times, noted that during assaults in eastern Ukraine, Russian troops have increasingly been using electric scooters, motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). He suggested that this could be part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to compensate for the losses of armored equipment.
The ISW also noted that attacks near medium-sized urban settlements, such as Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, may be less favorable for mechanized assaults than in smaller towns and open fields, where Russian forces have been advancing for most of 2024.
“Russian forces may be using fewer armored vehicles in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions if the Russian military is struggling to reequip frontline Russian units and formations and if Russian military command does not want to withdraw Russian units for rest and reconstitution and risk further slowing Russian advances in high-priority frontline sectors,” ISW analysts suggest.
The Institute also believes that the current pace of armored vehicle and tank production in Russia suggests that such losses will likely be unsustainable in the long term. This is especially due to Russia’s continued reduction of its Soviet-era stocks.
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