Russian army against Russian dictator: Soldiers returning from front threaten Putin's throne
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The US is once again calling on Russia to stop its aggression against Ukraine and conclude a peace agreement , but the Kremlin continues to block any efforts in this direction. As BILD reports , a new, rather alarming suspicion has arisen among Western political circles: if the war ends, Vladimir Putin’s regime could face serious domestic political challenges.
The reason is that Moscow has not yet realized its strategic military goals. Meanwhile, Russia’s military-industrial complex has been expanded by massive state injections. Hundreds of thousands of citizens receive a stable income thanks to the war. These circumstances make it much more difficult for Putin to compromise.
The question arises: what will be the consequences for Russia if the hostilities end?
Recently, Russian economists have stated:
“If we consider the dynamics of industrial production without taking into account sectors with a dominant share of the military-industrial complex, we can talk about a transition to recession.”
The country is seeing a decline in production in many industries, from food processing to mechanical engineering. Only the defense industry is showing growth, masking the overall decline.
Despite this, economist and former employee of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexandra Prokopenko believes that the end of the war will not be a blow to the military industry: “In my opinion, the end of the war will not affect the arms industry – the sector will continue to benefit from state needs.”
Prokopenko argues this as follows: “The military needs to replenish its arsenals, which have been significantly reduced or even completely depleted due to the war in Ukraine. Defense manufacturers have invested in expanding their capacity, expecting continued high demand. I doubt that such a bloated military-industrial complex will shrink again. Russia’s main adversaries – NATO and EU states – are also discussing increased military spending. Under these conditions, cutting defense spending would be politically unacceptable for Putin.
Another potential source of instability could be military personnel returning from the front. Expert Margaret Klein of the Institute for International and Security Affairs warns: “Dealing with veterans who return after the fighting ends is likely to be a challenge for Putin.”
The main problem is material, says the expert: “Those who went to the front as volunteers as contract soldiers or fighters in one of the various volunteer formations often earned many times more than the average wage over several years of war. This is due to increased wages, but above all to the sometimes very high one-time recruitment bonuses, which can reach more than 40,000 euros.”
Many of these people – often violent and psychologically traumatized – will return to depressed regions with low living standards. If the state does not provide them with a decent future, this could cause social tension and an upsurge in violence. The expert noted:
“Violent crime has increased since the full invasion of Russia. Of course, there is a danger that some – for example, returning veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya – will be drawn into crime.”
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