Russia's summer offensive doomed to fail, Ukraine accurately strike enemy targets with drones
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Ukraine is bracing for a new major offensive from Russia as Moscow’s forces step up attacks on Ukrainian positions. Kiev says Russian reserves are being stockpiled in preparation for another major assault, The Telegraph reports .
However, analysts say Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to seize new territory before a possible peace agreement are unlikely to be realized. The reason is numerous problems, weak organization and a lack of equipment in the Russian army.
Observers note that the Russian troops have almost exhausted their reserves of tanks and armored vehicles. Even with small tactical successes, Russia will not be able to use them due to limited resources. Additionally, Ukraine’s ability to strike accurately with drones makes it difficult for Moscow to deploy significant forces to the front lines, making a major breakthrough unlikely.
Dmitry Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Centre for Security and Cooperation, told The Telegraph:
“For now, any Russian offensive on the front lines is impossible. Russia has no major military victories on the front lines, so they want to create the impression that there are huge movements and advantages. We do not see this on the ground.”
Last month, Volodymyr Zelensky and G7 leaders warned that Russia was planning new attacks, particularly in the direction of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, which could give Putin an advantage in future negotiations.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed that offensive actions have already begun – the intensity of Russian attacks has increased significantly. Meanwhile, Kyiv is trying to keep the world’s attention focused on the situation in Ukraine, despite the absence of a peace agreement on Donald Trump’s agenda.
However, John Hardy, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, is convinced that the increase in attacks will not lead to significant success:
“What we are seeing is just a surge in the tempo of the assault… It is a very small scale. They can punch a hole in the Ukrainian line, but they are not able to punch that hole and achieve a rapid, operational, significant breakthrough.”
The Sumy region, where Ukrainian troops are regrouping after rapid Russian advances in the neighbouring Kursk region, is considered to be the most potentially vulnerable. One Ukrainian soldier who fought near Kursk told The Telegraph that the retreat had been taking place overnight in small groups: “A lot of equipment was left behind,” he said.
Hardy notes that attacks are mostly carried out by small groups without significant technical support, as resources are limited. Company-sized attacks, about 100 soldiers, are rare.
Over the past year, Russia has lost about 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles and at least 13,000 artillery systems. Hardy says:
“If you look at what’s left in the warehouses, especially what’s serviceable, the stocks are getting pretty low. I expect that by the end of this year they’ll be very hard pressed to continue the war, they’ll be completely depleted.”
Russia has the advantage of numbers. Putin recently signed a decree calling up another 160,000 men. However, as Hardy notes, these recruits receive minimal training – often no more than a month:
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