Why the Aussie dollar could push above 70 US cents by year's end, says NAB currency strategist
The Australian dollar has been on a wild ride for the past two months.
In early April, the Aussie dollar hit a five-year low, plunging through the 60 US cent barrier as the threat of Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs roiled markets.
But overnight the Aussie dollar touched a five-month high of 65 US cents
NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril says that was driven by speculation of a US deal with an as yet unnamed country.
However, he says the Australian dollar is sensitive to risk, and, “there’s an underlying theme about the structural decline that the US dollar is potentially embarking on, given the policies President Trump is implementing, particularly on trade and tensions with China.”
Mr Catril says NAB has a buoyant outlook for the Aussie dollar, primarily driven by speculation the US dollar has embarked on a cyclical decline, with expectations that the Fed will begin easing interest rates in the second half of 2025. He says that’s important because it will push the US dollar lower, and it will provide a tailwind for the Aussie dollar. When asked about his forecast for the Australian dollar for the rest of the year, Mr Catril says NAB’s expectation is for the Aussie to head towards 70 US cents, but that comes with one big assumption that the Chinese economy will perform quite well through fiscal support, despite headwinds coming from Beijing’s trade tensions with the US.
#ABCBusiness
Subscribe: http://ab.co/1svxLVE
ABC News provides around the clock coverage of news events as they break in Australia and abroad. It’s news when you want it, from Australia’s most trusted news organisation.
For more from ABC News, click here: https://ab.co/2kxYCZY
Watch more ABC News content ad-free on ABC iview: https://ab.co/2OB7Mk1
Go deeper on our ABC News In-depth channel: https://ab.co/2lNeBn2
Like ABC News on Facebook: http://facebook.com/abcnews.au
Follow ABC News on Instagram: http://instagram.com/abcnews_au
Follow ABC News on X (Twitter): http://twitter.com/abcnews
Note: In most cases, our captions are auto-generated.
#ABCNews #ABCNewsAustralia
